Professor Brian Perry

Research Area: Global Health
Scientific Themes: Tropical Medicine & Global Health and Immunology & Infectious Disease

Brian Perry has specialized in methodologies to determine the impacts, both biophysical and economic, of diseases and of alternative strategies and policies to control them, with particular emphasis on how animal disease control can contribute to poverty reduction. He led a landmark study for DFID to determine priority research investment options for poverty reduction in Africa and Asia, and has undertaken several economic impact evaluations of alternative policies for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control in South East Asia, the Andean region of South America and southern Africa.

He has also authored a global study for the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) on how greater international market access for livestock products by developing countries contributes to poverty reduction, and coordinated an international FMD research planning initiative entitled "Global roadmap for improving the tools to control FMD in endemic settings". He has led many independent evaluations of public funding in research and development, including the UN’s global avian influenza control programme, of the UN’s agricultural programmes in Ethiopia, the World Bank’s investment in avian influenza control in Nigeria, the EU’s programme to resuscitate agricultural development in Swaziland, and the FAO’s programme on FMD control in the Andean region of South America.

He authored a White Paper for the Independent Science and Partnership Council (ISPC) on the global demands for livestock research, and the responses by the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). He also recently co-authored a vision paper for FAO on the future contributions of livestock to food security in the Near East and North Africa. In 2015 he was awarded an honorary doctorate at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala. A selection of his recent publications and presentations is provided below:

Reports:

Perry, B.D. 2016. The control of East Coast fever of cattle by live parasite vaccination: A science-to-impact narrative. One Health, 2, 103–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2016.07.002

Perry, B.D. 2015. Towards a healthier planet. Veterinary epidemiology at the International Laboratory for Research on Animal Diseases (ILRAD) and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), 1987 – 2014; a review. International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya, 66 pp https://cgspace.cgiar.org/handle/10568/67885    

Perry, B.D., Morton, J., Stur, W. 2014. A strategic overview of livestock research undertaken by the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Consortium, 64 pp. http://www.sciencecouncil.cgiar.org/system/files_force/ISPC_WhitePaper_StrategicReviewLivestock.pdf?download=1

Perry, B.D., Romero, J., Lora, E. 2012. Evaluación independiente del Proyecto Regional Integrado Para el Control Progresivo de la Fiebre Aftosa en Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Perú y Venezuela.  GCP/RLA/178/SPA y GTFS/RLA/172/ITA. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/oed/docs/1GCPRLA178SPA_172ITA_2012_ER.zip

Perry, B.D., Bell, L., Gasana, J., Kassa, Yewubdar, Kimoto, Tsukasa, Kumsa, Tesfaye, Tripp, Robert 2011. Independent Evaluation of the Programmes and Cooperation of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations in Ethiopia, FAO Rome, 89 pp. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/oed/docs/Ethiopia_FAO_Cooperation_2011_ER.pdf.zip

Perry, B.D., Camus, E., Ellis, T., Mbugua, H., Moore, R., Kapur, S., Isa, K., Tarazona, C. 2010. Second Real Time Global Evaluation of FAO’s Work on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, Office of Evaluation, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome, http://www.fao.org/docrep/meeting/019/k8501e.pdf

There are no collaborations listed for this principal investigator.

Perry B, Sones K. 2007. Science for development. Poverty reduction through animal health. Science, 315 (5810), pp. 333-4.

Perry B, Grace D. 2009. The impacts of livestock diseases and their control on growth and development processes that are pro-poor. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci., 364 (1530), pp. 2643-55. | Show Abstract

Poverty is now at the heart of development discourse; we discuss how it is measured and understood. We next consider the negative and positive impacts of livestock on pro-poor development. Taking a value-chain approach that includes keepers, users and eaters of livestock, we identify diseases that are road blocks on the 'three livestock pathways out of poverty'. We discuss livestock impacts on poverty reduction and review attempts to prioritize the livestock diseases relevant to the poor. We make suggestions for metrics that better measure disease impact and show the benefits of more rigorous evaluation before reviewing recent attempts to measure the importance of disease to the poor. High impact of a disease does not guarantee high benefits from its control; other factors must be taken into consideration, including technical feasibility and political desirability. We conclude by considering how we might better understand and exploit the roles of livestock and improved animal health by posing three speculative questions on the impact of livestock diseases and their control on global poverty: how can understanding livestock and poverty links help disease control?; if global poverty reduction was the aim of livestock disease control, how would it differ from the current model?; and how much of the impact of livestock disease on poverty is due to disease control policy rather than disease itself?

Rich KM, Perry BD. 2011. The economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases in developing countries: new roles, new demands for economics and epidemiology. Prev. Vet. Med., 101 (3-4), pp. 133-47. | Show Abstract

Animal disease outbreaks pose significant threats to livestock sectors throughout the world, both from the standpoint of the economic impacts of the disease itself and the measures taken to mitigate the risk of disease introduction. These impacts are multidimensional and not always well understood, complicating effective policy response. In the developing world, livestock diseases have broader, more nuanced effects on markets, poverty, and livelihoods, given the diversity of uses of livestock and complexity of livestock value chains. In both settings, disease control strategies, particularly those informed by ex ante modeling platforms, often fail to recognize the constraints inherent among farmers, veterinary services, and other value chain actors. In short, context matters. Correspondingly, an important gap in the animal health economics literature is the explicit incorporation of behavior and incentives in impact analyses that highlight the interactions of disease with its socio-economic and institutional setting. In this paper, we examine new approaches and frameworks for the analysis of economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases. We propose greater utilization of "bottom-up" analyses, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of value chain and information economics approaches in impact analyses and stressing the importance of improved integration between the epidemiology of disease and its relationships with economic behavior.

Perry BD, Grace D, Sones K. 2013. Current drivers and future directions of global livestock disease dynamics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 110 (52), pp. 20871-7. | Show Abstract

We review the global dynamics of livestock disease over the last two decades. Our imperfect ability to detect and report disease hinders assessment of trends, but we suggest that, although endemic diseases continue their historic decline in wealthy countries, poor countries experience static or deteriorating animal health and epidemic diseases show both regression and expansion. At a mesolevel, disease is changing in terms of space and host, which is illustrated by bluetongue, Lyme disease, and West Nile virus, and it is also emerging, as illustrated by highly pathogenic avian influenza and others. Major proximate drivers of change in disease dynamics include ecosystem change, ecosystem incursion, and movements of people and animals; underlying these are demographic change and an increasing demand for livestock products. We identify three trajectories of global disease dynamics: (i) the worried well in developed countries (demanding less risk while broadening the circle of moral concern), (ii) the intensifying and market-orientated systems of many developing countries, where highly complex disease patterns create hot spots for disease shifts, and (iii) the neglected cold spots in poor countries, where rapid change in disease dynamics is less likely but smallholders and pastoralists continue to struggle with largely preventable and curable livestock diseases.

Henning J, Bett B, Okike I, Abdu P, Perry B. 2013. Incidence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Nigeria, 2005-2008. Transbound Emerg Dis, 60 (3), pp. 222-30. | Show Abstract

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 occurred in Nigeria between December 2005 and July 2008. We describe temporal and spatial characteristics of these outbreaks at State and Local Government Area (LGA) levels. A total of 25 of 37 States (67.6%; Exact 95% CI: 50.2-82.0%) and 81 of 774 LGAs (10.5%; Exact 95% CI: 8.4-12.8%) were affected by HPAI outbreaks over the period from 2005 to 2008. The incidence risk of HPAI outbreak occurrence at the State level was 5.6% (0.7-18.7%) for 2005, 50.0% (30.7-69.4%) for 2006, 54.5% (29.9-80.3%) for 2007 and 0% for 2008. Only very few LGAs experienced HPAI outbreaks within the affected States. The incidence risk of HPAI outbreak occurrence on a LGA level was 0.3% (0.0-0.9%) for 2005, 6.6% (4.9-8.6%) for 2006, 4.2% (2.9-6.0%) for 2007 and 0% for 2008. The mean period between farmers noticing HPAI outbreaks and reporting them to veterinary authorities, and between reporting HPAI outbreaks and the depopulation of infected premises, was for both 4.5 days; both periods also had medians of 1 day. We have estimated the spatially smoothed incidence risk for the whole outbreak period and identified the existence of a large corridor in the western part of Nigeria and a smaller corridor in south-eastern part, where the risk of HPAI occurrence was lower than in the rest of the country. The effect of HPAI control policies on the outbreaks patterns are discussed, as well as possible reasons why HPAI did not become endemic in Nigeria.

Bett B, Henning J, Abdu P, Okike I, Poole J, Young J, Randolph TF, Perry BD. 2014. Transmission rate and reproductive number of the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus during the December 2005-July 2008 epidemic in Nigeria. Transbound Emerg Dis, 61 (1), pp. 60-8. | Show Abstract

We quantified the between-village transmission rate, β (the rate of transmission of H5N1 HPAI virus per effective contact), and the reproductive number, Re (the average number of outbreaks caused by one infectious village during its entire infectious period), of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in Nigeria using outbreak data collected between December 2005 and July 2008. We classified the outbreaks into two phases to assess the effectiveness of the control measures implemented. Phase 1 (December 2005-October 2006) represents the period when the Federal Government of Nigeria managed the HPAI surveillance and response measures, while Phase 2 (November 2006-July 2008) represents the time during which the Nigeria Avian Influenza Control and Human Pandemic Preparedness project (NAICP), funded by a World Bank credit of US$ 50 million, had taken over the management of most of the interventions. We used a total of 204 outbreaks from 176 villages that occurred in 78 local government areas of 25 states. The compartmental susceptible-infectious model was used as the analytical tool. Means and 95% percentile confidence intervals were obtained using bootstrapping techniques. The overall mean β (assuming a duration of infectiousness, T, of 12 days) was 0.07/day (95% percentile confidence interval: 0.06-0.09). The first and second phases of the epidemic had comparable β estimates of 0.06/day (0.04-0.09) and 0.08/day (0.06-0.10), respectively. The Re of the virus associated with these β and T estimates was 0.9 (0.7-1.1); the first and second phases of the epidemic had Re of 0.84 (0.5-1.2) and 0.9 (0.6-1.2), respectively. We conclude that the intervention measures implemented in the second phase of the epidemic had comparable effects to those implemented during the first phase and that the Re of the epidemic was low, indicating that the Nigeria H5N1 HPAI epidemic was unstable.

Perry B. 2014. Good Friday slaughter. Ecohealth, 11 (3), pp. 284-5.

Perry BD, Grace DC. 2015. How Growing Complexity of Consumer Choices and Drivers of Consumption Behaviour Affect Demand for Animal Source Foods. Ecohealth, 12 (4), pp. 703-12. | Show Abstract

Many societies are spoiled for choice when they purchase meat and other livestock products, and around the globe food choice has grown dramatically in the last two decades. What is more, besides the cost and obvious health concerns influencing commodity section, an increasing proportion of choices is made to contribute to the achievement of certain ideals, such as natural resource management, climate change mitigation, animal welfare concerns and personal lifestyle. At the same time, human health considerations are becoming more important for consumption choices as richer societies, and increasingly the urban poor in low- and middle-income countries, face an unprecedented epidemic of over-consumption and associated diet-related non-communicable diseases. Animal source foods are considered significant contributors to this trend. This paper reviews this complicated arena, and explores the range of considerations that influence consumers' preferences for meat and other animal source foods. This paper also argues that deeper drivers of consumption behaviour of many foods may act in opposition to the articulated preferences for choices around animal source food consumption. We review how the returns to different causes are being valued, how emerging metrics are helping to manage and influence consumption behaviours, and draw conclusions regarding options which influence food choice.

Perry B, Sones K. 2007. Science for development. Poverty reduction through animal health. Science, 315 (5810), pp. 333-4.

Perry B, Grace D. 2009. The impacts of livestock diseases and their control on growth and development processes that are pro-poor. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., B, Biol. Sci., 364 (1530), pp. 2643-55. | Show Abstract

Poverty is now at the heart of development discourse; we discuss how it is measured and understood. We next consider the negative and positive impacts of livestock on pro-poor development. Taking a value-chain approach that includes keepers, users and eaters of livestock, we identify diseases that are road blocks on the 'three livestock pathways out of poverty'. We discuss livestock impacts on poverty reduction and review attempts to prioritize the livestock diseases relevant to the poor. We make suggestions for metrics that better measure disease impact and show the benefits of more rigorous evaluation before reviewing recent attempts to measure the importance of disease to the poor. High impact of a disease does not guarantee high benefits from its control; other factors must be taken into consideration, including technical feasibility and political desirability. We conclude by considering how we might better understand and exploit the roles of livestock and improved animal health by posing three speculative questions on the impact of livestock diseases and their control on global poverty: how can understanding livestock and poverty links help disease control?; if global poverty reduction was the aim of livestock disease control, how would it differ from the current model?; and how much of the impact of livestock disease on poverty is due to disease control policy rather than disease itself?

Rich KM, Perry BD. 2011. The economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases in developing countries: new roles, new demands for economics and epidemiology. Prev. Vet. Med., 101 (3-4), pp. 133-47. | Show Abstract

Animal disease outbreaks pose significant threats to livestock sectors throughout the world, both from the standpoint of the economic impacts of the disease itself and the measures taken to mitigate the risk of disease introduction. These impacts are multidimensional and not always well understood, complicating effective policy response. In the developing world, livestock diseases have broader, more nuanced effects on markets, poverty, and livelihoods, given the diversity of uses of livestock and complexity of livestock value chains. In both settings, disease control strategies, particularly those informed by ex ante modeling platforms, often fail to recognize the constraints inherent among farmers, veterinary services, and other value chain actors. In short, context matters. Correspondingly, an important gap in the animal health economics literature is the explicit incorporation of behavior and incentives in impact analyses that highlight the interactions of disease with its socio-economic and institutional setting. In this paper, we examine new approaches and frameworks for the analysis of economic and poverty impacts of animal diseases. We propose greater utilization of "bottom-up" analyses, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of value chain and information economics approaches in impact analyses and stressing the importance of improved integration between the epidemiology of disease and its relationships with economic behavior.

Perry BD, Grace D, Sones K. 2013. Current drivers and future directions of global livestock disease dynamics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 110 (52), pp. 20871-7. | Show Abstract

We review the global dynamics of livestock disease over the last two decades. Our imperfect ability to detect and report disease hinders assessment of trends, but we suggest that, although endemic diseases continue their historic decline in wealthy countries, poor countries experience static or deteriorating animal health and epidemic diseases show both regression and expansion. At a mesolevel, disease is changing in terms of space and host, which is illustrated by bluetongue, Lyme disease, and West Nile virus, and it is also emerging, as illustrated by highly pathogenic avian influenza and others. Major proximate drivers of change in disease dynamics include ecosystem change, ecosystem incursion, and movements of people and animals; underlying these are demographic change and an increasing demand for livestock products. We identify three trajectories of global disease dynamics: (i) the worried well in developed countries (demanding less risk while broadening the circle of moral concern), (ii) the intensifying and market-orientated systems of many developing countries, where highly complex disease patterns create hot spots for disease shifts, and (iii) the neglected cold spots in poor countries, where rapid change in disease dynamics is less likely but smallholders and pastoralists continue to struggle with largely preventable and curable livestock diseases.

Henning J, Bett B, Okike I, Abdu P, Perry B. 2013. Incidence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Nigeria, 2005-2008. Transbound Emerg Dis, 60 (3), pp. 222-30. | Show Abstract

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 occurred in Nigeria between December 2005 and July 2008. We describe temporal and spatial characteristics of these outbreaks at State and Local Government Area (LGA) levels. A total of 25 of 37 States (67.6%; Exact 95% CI: 50.2-82.0%) and 81 of 774 LGAs (10.5%; Exact 95% CI: 8.4-12.8%) were affected by HPAI outbreaks over the period from 2005 to 2008. The incidence risk of HPAI outbreak occurrence at the State level was 5.6% (0.7-18.7%) for 2005, 50.0% (30.7-69.4%) for 2006, 54.5% (29.9-80.3%) for 2007 and 0% for 2008. Only very few LGAs experienced HPAI outbreaks within the affected States. The incidence risk of HPAI outbreak occurrence on a LGA level was 0.3% (0.0-0.9%) for 2005, 6.6% (4.9-8.6%) for 2006, 4.2% (2.9-6.0%) for 2007 and 0% for 2008. The mean period between farmers noticing HPAI outbreaks and reporting them to veterinary authorities, and between reporting HPAI outbreaks and the depopulation of infected premises, was for both 4.5 days; both periods also had medians of 1 day. We have estimated the spatially smoothed incidence risk for the whole outbreak period and identified the existence of a large corridor in the western part of Nigeria and a smaller corridor in south-eastern part, where the risk of HPAI occurrence was lower than in the rest of the country. The effect of HPAI control policies on the outbreaks patterns are discussed, as well as possible reasons why HPAI did not become endemic in Nigeria.

Bett B, Henning J, Abdu P, Okike I, Poole J, Young J, Randolph TF, Perry BD. 2014. Transmission rate and reproductive number of the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus during the December 2005-July 2008 epidemic in Nigeria. Transbound Emerg Dis, 61 (1), pp. 60-8. | Show Abstract

We quantified the between-village transmission rate, β (the rate of transmission of H5N1 HPAI virus per effective contact), and the reproductive number, Re (the average number of outbreaks caused by one infectious village during its entire infectious period), of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in Nigeria using outbreak data collected between December 2005 and July 2008. We classified the outbreaks into two phases to assess the effectiveness of the control measures implemented. Phase 1 (December 2005-October 2006) represents the period when the Federal Government of Nigeria managed the HPAI surveillance and response measures, while Phase 2 (November 2006-July 2008) represents the time during which the Nigeria Avian Influenza Control and Human Pandemic Preparedness project (NAICP), funded by a World Bank credit of US$ 50 million, had taken over the management of most of the interventions. We used a total of 204 outbreaks from 176 villages that occurred in 78 local government areas of 25 states. The compartmental susceptible-infectious model was used as the analytical tool. Means and 95% percentile confidence intervals were obtained using bootstrapping techniques. The overall mean β (assuming a duration of infectiousness, T, of 12 days) was 0.07/day (95% percentile confidence interval: 0.06-0.09). The first and second phases of the epidemic had comparable β estimates of 0.06/day (0.04-0.09) and 0.08/day (0.06-0.10), respectively. The Re of the virus associated with these β and T estimates was 0.9 (0.7-1.1); the first and second phases of the epidemic had Re of 0.84 (0.5-1.2) and 0.9 (0.6-1.2), respectively. We conclude that the intervention measures implemented in the second phase of the epidemic had comparable effects to those implemented during the first phase and that the Re of the epidemic was low, indicating that the Nigeria H5N1 HPAI epidemic was unstable.

Perry B. 2014. Good Friday slaughter. Ecohealth, 11 (3), pp. 284-5.

Perry BD, Grace DC. 2015. How Growing Complexity of Consumer Choices and Drivers of Consumption Behaviour Affect Demand for Animal Source Foods. Ecohealth, 12 (4), pp. 703-12. | Show Abstract

Many societies are spoiled for choice when they purchase meat and other livestock products, and around the globe food choice has grown dramatically in the last two decades. What is more, besides the cost and obvious health concerns influencing commodity section, an increasing proportion of choices is made to contribute to the achievement of certain ideals, such as natural resource management, climate change mitigation, animal welfare concerns and personal lifestyle. At the same time, human health considerations are becoming more important for consumption choices as richer societies, and increasingly the urban poor in low- and middle-income countries, face an unprecedented epidemic of over-consumption and associated diet-related non-communicable diseases. Animal source foods are considered significant contributors to this trend. This paper reviews this complicated arena, and explores the range of considerations that influence consumers' preferences for meat and other animal source foods. This paper also argues that deeper drivers of consumption behaviour of many foods may act in opposition to the articulated preferences for choices around animal source food consumption. We review how the returns to different causes are being valued, how emerging metrics are helping to manage and influence consumption behaviours, and draw conclusions regarding options which influence food choice.

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